[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":116},["ShallowReactive",2],{"shared-newsletter-band":3,"post-\u002Fblog\u002F2026-09-21-ai-could-first-push-yields-higher-then-lower":12,"disclosures-modal":87},{"newsletterSecondary":4},{"heading":5,"body":6,"nameLabel":7,"emailLabel":8,"consent":9,"submitLabel":10,"backdrop":11},"Follow Pietari's investment thinking","Receive Pietari’s latest market commentary and investment insights by email.","Name","Email","I agree to receive the Triangula Capital newsletter by email. I can unsubscribe at any time.","SUBSCRIBE","\u002Fimages\u002Fnewsletter-backdrop.webp",{"id":13,"title":14,"author":15,"body":16,"date":76,"description":77,"draft":78,"extension":79,"hero":73,"hidden":78,"image":73,"meta":80,"navigation":81,"noindex":78,"ogImage":73,"path":82,"seo":83,"seoTitle":14,"stem":84,"tags":85,"__hash__":86},"blog\u002Fblog\u002F2026-09-21-ai-could-first-push-yields-higher-then-lower.md","AI could first push yields higher, then lower","Pietari Laurila",{"type":17,"value":18,"toc":72},"minimark",[19,23,26,36,39,42,45,48,51,54,57,60,63,66,69],[20,21,22],"p",{},"The US 10-year Treasury yield could increase from its present level of around 5% towards 6% next year because of the AI investment boom.",[20,24,25],{},"But what could happen after that?",[20,27,28,35],{},[29,30,34],"a",{"href":31,"rel":32},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.allianz-trade.com\u002Fen_global\u002Fnews-insights\u002Feconomic-insights\u002FAI-and-rates.html",[33],"nofollow","A new report by Allianz"," argues that although AI could push interest rates higher at first, it could eventually push them lower.",[20,37,38],{},"If AI makes workers and companies more productive, the economy should be able to grow faster. Faster growth creates more investment opportunities, increasing companies' demand for capital.",[20,40,41],{},"When more businesses want to borrow and invest, the equilibrium interest rate needed to balance saving and investment rises.",[20,43,44],{},"Allianz estimates that this effect could increase the neutral interest rate in the US by as much as 0.7 percentage points over the coming decade.",[20,46,47],{},"But this is not the whole story.",[20,49,50],{},"Higher productivity and economic growth also increase government tax revenues. Government spending, meanwhile, does not necessarily increase at the same pace.",[20,52,53],{},"If AI improves the US government's finances, investors may become more comfortable holding Treasury bonds and demand less additional compensation for fiscal risk.",[20,55,56],{},"Allianz estimates that this fiscal effect could eventually lower the US 10-year Treasury yield by around 0.9 percentage points.",[20,58,59],{},"Overall, Allianz calculates that AI could initially push the US 10-year yield almost 0.9 percentage points higher, with the impact peaking around 2032. But by 2036, the effect reverses: AI could leave the 10-year yield around 0.5 percentage points lower than it otherwise would have been.",[20,61,62],{},"In other words, AI could first push yields higher, and later pull them lower.",[20,64,65],{},"In the next few years, enormous investment in data centres, electricity generation, chips and other infrastructure could contribute to keeping bond yields unusually high.",[20,67,68],{},"But if those investments eventually deliver the productivity gains that justify them, the longer-term consequence could be exactly the opposite: stronger growth, healthier government finances and lower long-term bond yields.",[20,70,71],{},"So a move towards 6% in the US 10-year yield would not necessarily mean that 6% is the new long-term normal. The more successful the AI boom ultimately becomes, the stronger the forces pushing yields back down could eventually be.",{"title":73,"searchDepth":74,"depth":74,"links":75},"",3,[],"2026-09-21","How AI investment could lift bond yields before productivity gains and stronger public finances pull them lower.",false,"md",{},true,"\u002Fblog\u002F2026-09-21-ai-could-first-push-yields-higher-then-lower",{"title":14,"description":77},"blog\u002F2026-09-21-ai-could-first-push-yields-higher-then-lower",[],"LuLNiSE1tiVCdKAJ3dvbGmmqTB-Z_OY7ua9OfxI6Epw",{"id":88,"title":89,"about":90,"body":91,"contact":90,"description":110,"extension":79,"hero":90,"hidden":78,"insights":90,"layout":90,"media":90,"meta":111,"navigation":81,"newsletterPrimary":90,"newsletterSecondary":90,"noindex":78,"ogImage":90,"path":112,"pressLounge":90,"seo":113,"seoTitle":90,"stem":114,"team":90,"timeline":90,"weeklyNews":90,"__hash__":115},"pages\u002Fdisclosures.md","Disclosures",null,{"type":17,"value":92,"toc":108},[93,96,99,102,105],[20,94,95],{},"Triangula Capital is not a registered investment advisor and does not offer investment advisory, fund management or wealth management services.",[20,97,98],{},"The content on the website is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute (i) an offer or solicitation to buy, hold or sell any security or other financial instrument, (ii) investment, legal, tax, accounting, or other professional advice, or (iii) a personal recommendation as defined under MiFID II.",[20,100,101],{},"Information on the website is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is supplied on an “as-is” basis without warranty as to accuracy or completeness. Opinions, estimates, and forward-looking statements reflect the author’s judgement as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice.",[20,103,104],{},"Triangula Capital and affiliates may hold positions in the securities mentioned on the website and may trade them without further disclosure. No liability is accepted for any direct, indirect, or consequential loss arising from the use of this material. Readers should conduct their own independent research and consult qualified advisers before making any investment decision.",[20,106,107],{},"Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments carry risk, including the risk of total loss.",{"title":73,"searchDepth":74,"depth":74,"links":109},[],"Important disclosures for Triangula Capital.",{},"\u002Fdisclosures",{"title":89,"description":110},"disclosures","ouLbJlrT4ndgvvXjoNqj-5a01kagnpcvHpAwogv22ow",1792509344518]