The S&P 500 is near a record. Most stocks aren't
· Pietari Laurila
The cap-weighted S&P 500 is only 1% below its August 13 record close. That resilience comes almost entirely from AI stocks. Over the last month, the equal-weight S&P 500 has fallen 5%. Only 27% of S&P 500 stocks trade above their 50-day moving average.
The main reason for this divergence is interest rates, which have been increasing lately. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% today, its highest close since July 2007. A few cash-rich mega-caps can ignore that, but most companies can’t.
European residential property is a clear example. Vonovia, Germany's largest listed landlord, has fallen to a multi-year low around €17 a share as its operating environment has deteriorated.
Oil is back above $100, and the ECB has resumed hiking interest rates. The AI boom has been putting additional upward pressure on interest rates. The German 10-year yield, which traded below 3% in early July, has risen above 3.6%.
Politics has turned against Vonovia too. Earlier this month, the Left Party won Berlin's state election, after campaigning to make the expropriation of large landlords like Vonovia a condition for joining any coalition.
Markets currently price in roughly 100bp of further ECB hikes by late 2027. How much actually gets delivered will depend on energy prices. If the Iran situation de-escalates and oil falls back, the rate outlook could ease quickly. On the other hand, if yields keep climbing, European property values could fall more.
The next few months will show which scenario plays out.