[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":112},["ShallowReactive",2],{"shared-newsletter-band":3,"post-\u002Fblog\u002F2026-10-06-ai-iran-and-the-case-for-contrarian-investing":12,"disclosures-modal":83},{"newsletterSecondary":4},{"heading":5,"body":6,"nameLabel":7,"emailLabel":8,"consent":9,"submitLabel":10,"backdrop":11},"Follow Pietari's investment thinking","Receive Pietari’s latest market commentary and investment insights by email.","Name","Email","I agree to receive the Triangula Capital newsletter by email. I can unsubscribe at any time.","SUBSCRIBE","\u002Fimages\u002Fnewsletter-backdrop.webp",{"id":13,"title":14,"author":15,"body":16,"date":72,"description":73,"draft":74,"extension":75,"hero":69,"hidden":74,"image":69,"meta":76,"navigation":77,"noindex":74,"ogImage":69,"path":78,"seo":79,"seoTitle":14,"stem":80,"tags":81,"__hash__":82},"blog\u002Fblog\u002F2026-10-06-ai-iran-and-the-case-for-contrarian-investing.md","AI, Iran and the Case for Contrarian Investing","Pietari Laurila",{"type":17,"value":18,"toc":68},"minimark",[19,23,26,29,32,35,38,41,44,47,50,53,56,59,62,65],[20,21,22],"p",{},"Two macro themes have dominated markets this year: AI and the Iran war.",[20,24,25],{},"The AI boom is increasingly dividing the market into winners and losers.",[20,27,28],{},"AI infrastructure companies are expected to account for more than half of S&P 500 earnings growth in Q3, and their share prices have surged this year.",[20,30,31],{},"At the same time, the AI boom has created headwinds elsewhere. Investments in data centres, chips and power infrastructure are increasing demand for capital and keeping interest rates higher for longer.",[20,33,34],{},"That matters for more interest-rate-sensitive parts of the market, for example real estate, where higher bond yields put pressure on both valuations and financing costs.",[20,36,37],{},"The Iran war has created a second divide: that between energy exporters and importers.",[20,39,40],{},"Europe is an example of the latter. It may therefore be no surprise that the euro recently fell to a 17-month low, as high energy prices, rising bond yields and European political concerns supported the dollar.",[20,42,43],{},"So where does that leave investors?",[20,45,46],{},"I don't think the answer is simply to chase what has already worked.",[20,48,49],{},"US equities now carry very high expectations. Vanguard, for example, expects roughly 4–6% annual returns from US equities over the next decade, while some valuation-based models produce even lower estimates.",[20,51,52],{},"Europe, by contrast, remains considerably cheaper. The MSCI Europe index recently traded at around 15 times expected earnings, close to its historical average and at a substantial discount to the US.",[20,54,55],{},"There are also some tentative signs that recent macro trends may be beginning to turn.",[20,57,58],{},"Interest rates may be reaching a point where simply stopping their rise would matter. If energy markets gradually normalise, bond yields could stabilise or move lower.",[20,60,61],{},"Political risk could also become less one-sided. Marine Le Pen today presented a more fiscally conservative programme than markets previously expected, including plans for substantial spending cuts and a declining French budget deficit. French bond yields fell following the announcement.",[20,63,64],{},"The key point for contrarian investors is simple:",[20,66,67],{},"Starting valuations matter. What has performed best recently is not necessarily what will produce the best returns from here.",{"title":69,"searchDepth":70,"depth":70,"links":71},"",3,[],"2026-10-06","How AI, energy prices and interest rates are dividing markets—and why starting valuations matter for contrarian investors.",false,"md",{},true,"\u002Fblog\u002F2026-10-06-ai-iran-and-the-case-for-contrarian-investing",{"title":14,"description":73},"blog\u002F2026-10-06-ai-iran-and-the-case-for-contrarian-investing",[],"W9V0bNa7_tDClMq77wWOWsh9uUcRWJX0rbxPpY4XHgo",{"id":84,"title":85,"about":86,"body":87,"contact":86,"description":106,"extension":75,"hero":86,"hidden":74,"insights":86,"layout":86,"media":86,"meta":107,"navigation":77,"newsletterPrimary":86,"newsletterSecondary":86,"noindex":74,"ogImage":86,"path":108,"pressLounge":86,"seo":109,"seoTitle":86,"stem":110,"team":86,"timeline":86,"weeklyNews":86,"__hash__":111},"pages\u002Fdisclosures.md","Disclosures",null,{"type":17,"value":88,"toc":104},[89,92,95,98,101],[20,90,91],{},"Triangula Capital is not a registered investment advisor and does not offer investment advisory, fund management or wealth management services.",[20,93,94],{},"The content on the website is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute (i) an offer or solicitation to buy, hold or sell any security or other financial instrument, (ii) investment, legal, tax, accounting, or other professional advice, or (iii) a personal recommendation as defined under MiFID II.",[20,96,97],{},"Information on the website is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is supplied on an “as-is” basis without warranty as to accuracy or completeness. Opinions, estimates, and forward-looking statements reflect the author’s judgement as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice.",[20,99,100],{},"Triangula Capital and affiliates may hold positions in the securities mentioned on the website and may trade them without further disclosure. No liability is accepted for any direct, indirect, or consequential loss arising from the use of this material. Readers should conduct their own independent research and consult qualified advisers before making any investment decision.",[20,102,103],{},"Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments carry risk, including the risk of total loss.",{"title":69,"searchDepth":70,"depth":70,"links":105},[],"Important disclosures for Triangula Capital.",{},"\u002Fdisclosures",{"title":85,"description":106},"disclosures","ouLbJlrT4ndgvvXjoNqj-5a01kagnpcvHpAwogv22ow",1792509344499]