[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":103},["ShallowReactive",2],{"shared-newsletter-band":3,"post-\u002Fblog\u002F2026-10-12-us-midterms-ai-and-bond-yields":12,"disclosures-modal":74},{"newsletterSecondary":4},{"heading":5,"body":6,"nameLabel":7,"emailLabel":8,"consent":9,"submitLabel":10,"backdrop":11},"Follow Pietari's investment thinking","Receive Pietari’s latest market commentary and investment insights by email.","Name","Email","I agree to receive the Triangula Capital newsletter by email. I can unsubscribe at any time.","SUBSCRIBE","\u002Fimages\u002Fnewsletter-backdrop.webp",{"id":13,"title":14,"author":15,"body":16,"date":63,"description":64,"draft":65,"extension":66,"hero":60,"hidden":65,"image":60,"meta":67,"navigation":68,"noindex":65,"ogImage":60,"path":69,"seo":70,"seoTitle":60,"stem":71,"tags":72,"__hash__":73},"blog\u002Fblog\u002F2026-10-12-us-midterms-ai-and-bond-yields.md","US midterms: What they mean for AI and bond yields","Pietari Laurila",{"type":17,"value":18,"toc":59},"minimark",[19,23,26,29,32,35,38,41,44,47,50,53,56],[20,21,22],"p",{},"For much of this year, one theme has dominated markets: AI.",[20,24,25],{},"According to JPMorgan, a basket of just 42 AI-related stocks has generated roughly two-thirds of the S&P 500’s returns since the start of 2024, 58% of its earnings growth and more than 80% of its growth in capital spending.",[20,27,28],{},"This helps explain something that may otherwise look strange. Oil is above $100, US bond yields are above 5%, and 85% of S&P 500 constituents are down at least 10% from their all-time highs. Yet the major US indices remain close to record levels.",[20,30,31],{},"AI has simply overwhelmed everything else.",[20,33,34],{},"One possible catalyst for a change in market leadership is the US midterm election on 3 November.",[20,36,37],{},"Affordability has become an important political issue, and AI itself is increasingly part of that debate. Data centres require enormous amounts of electricity, raising concerns about power prices and grid capacity. Several election campaigns are already focusing on these issues.",[20,39,40],{},"A strong Democratic result could reduce the Trump administration's political ability to push through its broader economic agenda, including support for the rapid AI and data-centre build-out. It could also bring greater regulatory scrutiny of technology companies.",[20,42,43],{},"If the result is divided government instead, with Democrats controlling the House and Republicans retaining the Senate, fiscal policy could become more constrained, potentially easing some of the upward pressure on bond yields.",[20,45,46],{},"None of this means the AI boom will suddenly end. The underlying earnings growth is real, and AI investment could remain one of the most powerful economic trends of this decade.",[20,48,49],{},"But markets have become extraordinarily concentrated around it. When almost everyone is positioned for the same outcome, even a relatively small change in expectations can matter.",[20,51,52],{},"If the midterms weaken Republican control and contribute to lower bond yields, market leadership could start to broaden beyond AI, potentially benefiting smaller companies, REITs, financials and other cyclical sectors.",[20,54,55],{},"Alternatively, if Republicans retain control of both the House and Senate and the AI build-out continues with little political resistance, the current trend could extend well into 2027.",[20,57,58],{},"The midterms could thus determine whether AI remains the only trade that really matters.",{"title":60,"searchDepth":61,"depth":61,"links":62},"",3,[],"2026-10-12","How the US midterms could reshape AI investment, influence bond yields and broaden market leadership beyond technology.",false,"md",{},true,"\u002Fblog\u002F2026-10-12-us-midterms-ai-and-bond-yields",{"title":14,"description":64},"blog\u002F2026-10-12-us-midterms-ai-and-bond-yields",[],"pmzEUfYp5FEa3V4HBFFl5zIyO_gjphPvIvEmK-kNd2I",{"id":75,"title":76,"about":77,"body":78,"contact":77,"description":97,"extension":66,"hero":77,"hidden":65,"insights":77,"layout":77,"media":77,"meta":98,"navigation":68,"newsletterPrimary":77,"newsletterSecondary":77,"noindex":65,"ogImage":77,"path":99,"pressLounge":77,"seo":100,"seoTitle":77,"stem":101,"team":77,"timeline":77,"weeklyNews":77,"__hash__":102},"pages\u002Fdisclosures.md","Disclosures",null,{"type":17,"value":79,"toc":95},[80,83,86,89,92],[20,81,82],{},"Triangula Capital is not a registered investment advisor and does not offer investment advisory, fund management or wealth management services.",[20,84,85],{},"The content on the website is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute (i) an offer or solicitation to buy, hold or sell any security or other financial instrument, (ii) investment, legal, tax, accounting, or other professional advice, or (iii) a personal recommendation as defined under MiFID II.",[20,87,88],{},"Information on the website is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is supplied on an “as-is” basis without warranty as to accuracy or completeness. Opinions, estimates, and forward-looking statements reflect the author’s judgement as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice.",[20,90,91],{},"Triangula Capital and affiliates may hold positions in the securities mentioned on the website and may trade them without further disclosure. No liability is accepted for any direct, indirect, or consequential loss arising from the use of this material. Readers should conduct their own independent research and consult qualified advisers before making any investment decision.",[20,93,94],{},"Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments carry risk, including the risk of total loss.",{"title":60,"searchDepth":61,"depth":61,"links":96},[],"Important disclosures for Triangula Capital.",{},"\u002Fdisclosures",{"title":76,"description":97},"disclosures","ouLbJlrT4ndgvvXjoNqj-5a01kagnpcvHpAwogv22ow",1792509344499]